From 100,000 to 1.5 million Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2030: Will you be ready?

By January 2021, Québec is expected to surpass the 100,000 Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mark. This means the province will have missed its ZEV adoption target by only one month. Had it not been for the pandemic, this goal would have been surpassed!

A few weeks ago, the provincial government announced its Green Economy Plan (GEP) 2030:

• 1,5 million VZEs in circulation by 2030

• a ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035

• electrification of 55% of the city bus fleet by 2030

• electrification of 65% of the school bus fleet by 2030

• an increase in the number of rapid charging stations (BRCC) in the Circuit Électrique from a little over 350 at present to 2,500 in 2030

• an increase in the number of Level 2 public charging stations to more than 4,500 by 2030

This will have the effect of very strongly stimulating the entire electric vehicle industry with resulting jobs and revenues.

I remind you that we have gone from zero ZEV in 2010 to 100,000 by January 2021. If we reach our new objective of 1,5 million VZEs in 2030, that will mean a 15-fold increase in the number of ZEVs on Québec roads in only 10 years.

AN EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN REVENUES OVER A DECADE

Let’s be conservative and say that a ZEV will cost an average of $40,000 by 2030. That shouldn’t be too surprising, since the average selling price for a light vehicle in Canada was over $40,000 in 2019. So, 1,4 million ZEV x $40,000 = $56 billion over 10 years.

Add to this an exponential increase in sales of residential chargers and installation contracts for electrical contractors. If 2/3 of ZEV owners purchase a residential charger at an average price of $1,000 each, that means more than $1 billion in sales over 10 years + a minimum of $500 million in installation revenues.

Now, add to that the rapid charging stations (BRCC), which cost at least $80,000 per unit, installation included and we are talking about $200 million.

And we haven’t even touched on the sales revenues of school and city buses and heavy-duty electric trucks, which together will be in the billions of dollars.

In short, a whole new market and specialties are emerging, and those who wish to be leaders will take advantage of this opportunity, while latecomers will miss out on a market share… and a lot of money!

With this in mind, the question you must now ask yourself is this: AM I READY?

Daniel Breton, President and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada